Stefano Bonini, PhD

Stefano Bonini is an Italian finance academic and practitioner specialising in credit risk modelling and FinTech. He teaches FinTech at the University of Bologna, Innovation in Banking and Financial Markets at the University of Florence, and Financial Risk Management at LUMSA University. He also teaches Credit Risk at the POLIMI Graduate School of Management (Milan).

He is Partner and Head of Risk Advisory at MBS Consulting, after a decade as head of the Credit Risk & Risk Governance practice at Accenture. Earlier he worked at Deloitte Consulting and Prometeia.

His research covers credit risk modelling, A-IRB models, climate risk, machine learning, and FinTech. He holds a PhD (cum laude) from the University of Rome Tor Vergata.

Professional qualifications

• Chartered Accountant, Order of Chartered Accountants of Milan
• Statutory Auditor and qualified Sustainability Auditor
• State Examination in Statistics
• Chartered Statistician (RSS) · Accredited Professional Statistician (ASA)
• Registered Journalist

Education

• PhD in Banking & Finance (cum laude), University of Rome Tor Vergata
• Degree in Mathematical Economics, University of Florence
• Visiting student: University of Birmingham (2001–2002), University of Sussex (2004), Georgetown University (2005), University of Alicante (2006–2007)

Books

FinTech: Rethinking Financial Intermediation

Innovation, Markets, and Regulation · with Giuliana Caivano · FrancoAngeli, 2026 · English · ISBN 978-88-351-9609-9

FinTech is often described as the application of technology to finance; this book argues that it is about rethinking financial services starting from users' needs, with technology as the enabler. Across twelve chapters it covers digital payments, digital lending, credit risk modelling and decision systems, blockchain and crypto-assets, wealth management, supply chain finance and sustainable finance, concluding with AI governance under the AI Act and digital operational resilience under DORA, with case studies from European banking portfolios. Foreword by Romina Gabbiadini (Bank of Italy).

Publisher page

Statistica per le decisioni economiche e finanziarie

with Giuliana Caivano · FrancoAngeli, 2026 · Italian · ISBN 978-88-351-8790-5

A reference text that turns statistics into a practical tool for economic and financial decisions, written as a companion for students, researchers, professionals, economic journalists and managers who need to analyse data and solve complex problems. Foreword by Giorgio Gobbi (Bank of Italy).

Publisher page

Selected research

• Systematic forecast errors from extreme weather events in credit risk models. Economics Letters, 2026. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2026.113149
  Shows that banks' internal credit risk models underestimate the risk arising from extreme weather events.
• Why Publish in Top Journals? Publication Incentives and Binary Classification in Finance, Economics and Business. Finance Research Letters, 2026. doi:10.1016/j.frl.2026.110406
  Examines how binary journal classifications, where a journal is either in or out of a top list, shape publication incentives in finance, economics and business.
• Artificial Intelligence: the Application of Machine Learning and Predictive Analytics in Credit Risk. Risk Management Magazine, 2021. doi:10.47473/2020rmm0081
  Compares machine learning techniques to estimate and calibrate probability of default on more than 800,000 retail borrowers: neural networks rank risk most accurately, while classification trees are easier to interpret.
• Probability of Default Modeling: A Machine Learning Approach. Book chapter, Springer, 2018. doi:10.1007/978-3-319-89824-7_32
  Builds a probability-of-default model with machine learning, from variable selection and algorithm comparison to calibration into rating classes, on a large retail portfolio of a European bank.
• Estimating loss-given default through advanced credibility theory. European Journal of Finance, 2016. doi:10.1080/1351847X.2013.870918
  Introduces credibility theory, an actuarial technique, to estimate loss given default, outperforming traditional models with stable out-of-time accuracy.
• The survival analysis approach in basel II credit risk management: Modeling danger rates in the loss given default parameter. Journal of Credit Risk, 2013. doi:10.21314/JCR.2013.155
  First application of survival analysis to loss-given-default estimation, modelling how defaulted loans evolve towards charge-off.

Full list on ORCID and Google Scholar.

Teaching

Current

• University of Bologna – FinTech; Economics of Financial Intermediaries · since 2011
• University of Florence – Innovation in Banking and Financial Markets · since 2022
• LUMSA University, Rome – Financial Risk Management; course compliant with the AIFIRM Syllabus (Italian Association of Financial Industry Risk Managers) · since 2017
• POLIMI Graduate School of Management (Milan) – Credit Risk · since 2013

Previous

• University of Milan – FinTech Industry · 2020–2021
• Bologna Business School – Financial Markets and Instruments · 2022, 2023

Visiting positions

• NYU Stern School of Business – Visiting Scholar · 2019
• IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca – Visiting Professor · 2016–2017; 2019–2022
• Université Côte d'Azur – Visiting Lecturer · 2024, 2025
• University of Barcelona – Visiting Lecturer · 2024
• Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences – Visiting Lecturer · 2023, 2025, 2026
• Catholic University Our Lady of Good Counsel, Tirana – Visiting Lecturer · 2024, 2025

Speaking

Academic conferences

• 2026 · AI in Banking, University of Florence
• 2025 · Conference on Contemporary Financial Research in a Transforming World, Institute of European Finance, Bangor University (UK)
• 2024 · New Frontiers in Credit and Finance, University of Cagliari (session coordinator)
• 2021 · Credit Scoring and Credit Control Conference XVII, University of Edinburgh Business School · Finance Research Letters annual conference, University of Valencia
• 2019 · Credit Scoring and Credit Control Conference, University of Edinburgh Business School · International Risk Management Conference, Bocconi University, Milan
• 2018 · Credit 2018, International Conference on Financial Regulation (with R. C. Merton), University of Venice · European Financial Management Association Meetings, Università Cattolica, Milan · 11th International Risk Management Conference, EM Lyon Business School and University of Paris · 8th International Conference on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Finance, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Industry and policy events

• 2026 · ABI Supervision, Risks & Profitability, Milan (round table) · European Commission, Conference on Sustainable Finance
• 2025 · ABI Supervision, Risks & Profitability, Milan · Banca d'Italia, workshop on artificial intelligence for credit risk (invited speaker)
• 2024 · Milan Fintech Summit (moderator)
• 2023 · ABI Supervision, Risks & Profitability, Milan · RiskMinds International, London · Seamless Europe, Berlin (moderator) · Milan Fintech Summit (moderator) · Global Thinking Foundation, “Libere di… vivere”, Bologna
• 2022 · RiskMinds International, Barcelona (invited speaker) · Milan Fintech Summit (moderator)
• 2021 · RiskMinds International, Barcelona (invited speaker): “Credit risk & systems: how are our models advancing to the new normal?” · Milan Fintech Summit (moderator)
• 2020 · RiskMinds: “Credit risk modelling between FinTech agility and banking experience” · Forum Banca, FinTech Smart Village, Milan
• 2019 · ABI Basilea 3 – Supervision, Risks & Profitability, Rome · SAS Forum: New Age of Risk Analytics, Milan
• 2018 · RiskMinds International, Amsterdam · ABI Basilea 3 – Risk & Supervision, Rome

Press & media

• "Bonini (MBS Consulting): L'AI nei modelli interni crea valore solo se cambiano anche i dati". Video interview at Supervision, Risks & Profitability 2026, Bancaforte (ABI), 13 July 2026. In Italian. Watch
• "Bonini (MBS Consulting): Dal rischio all'incertezza, ecco come cambia il ruolo del risk manager". Video interview at Supervision, Risks & Profitability 2025, Bancaforte (ABI), 16 June 2025. In Italian. Watch
• "Dmo, definiti i vertici. Michele Luciani alla guida. Nominati due consiglieri". Profile on his appointment to the board of the Fondazione Turismo DMO of Montecatini Terme, by Daniele Bernardini, La Nazione, 21 May 2025. In Italian. Read
• TV interview on ECB interest rate decisions, TGR Piazza Affari, Rai 3, 19 September 2024. In Italian. Watch
• TV interview on ECB interest rate decisions, TGR Piazza Affari, Rai 3, 13 June 2024. In Italian. Watch
• "MBS Consulting (Cerved): operativa una nuova practice dedicata al Risk Advisory". News on the launch of the Risk Advisory practice he co-leads, Bancaforte (ABI), 8 February 2024. In Italian. Read
• "Il Fintech non è solo pagamenti". Video interview at the Milan Fintech Summit, askanews (published by il Dolomiti), 11 October 2023. In Italian. Watch
• TV interview on FinTech, on the occasion of the Milan Fintech Summit, TGR Piazza Affari, Rai 3, 11 October 2023. In Italian. Watch
• Speaker at the Bologna stage of the Global Thinking Foundation "Libere di… vivere" tour on financial education. QN Economia – il Resto del Carlino, 17 April 2023, print edition. In Italian.
• "La nuova era del rischio di credito in banca: intervista a Stefano Bonini". Live-streamed interview, 24ORE Business School, 2 November 2022. In Italian. Event page
• Listed among the "Top 100 FinTech Leaders and Influencers in Italy", compiled by Claudio Bedino (Medium, 26 August 2019) and republished by StartupItalia ("I 100 profili da seguire nel fintech e nell'insurtech italiano", 2019) and Fintechnews Switzerland (19 September 2019). Original list · Fintechnews · StartupItalia
• "Il montecatinese che insegna nel dipartimento dei premi Nobel". Profile on his visiting period at NYU Stern School of Business, by Lorenzo Mei, Il Tirreno, 19 August 2019. In Italian. Read

Beyond finance

• Chess: FIDE National Arbiter; FIDE National Instructor and Lead School Instructor.
• Magic: member of The Magic Circle (London) and of CLAM (Milan); performs at private and corporate events in Italy and abroad.

Profiles

ORCID Google Scholar SSRN RePEc Scopus Wikidata LinkedIn University of Bologna

Contact

Email: stefano@stefanobonini.eu
LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/stefanobonini